Trump chances of winning the election are diminishing


The American newspaper “The Hill” published on its website an article by writer Niall Stanig in which he affirmed that President Donald Trump’s chances of winning a second term are diminishing, while opinion polls indicate that his Democratic opponent, Joe Biden, has advanced by a large margin that is difficult for him to overcome.

In its article, the newspaper pointed out that opposition voices among senior Republicans - such as Senator Mitt Romney and Senator Ben Sas - began to rise against the president, an indication of the depth of concern about the fate awaiting the Republican Party in the legislative elections for the Senate and Representatives.

Perhaps most important of all - according to The Hill - time is not on President Trump’s side. Unless a “earth-shattering surprise” occurs this October, Trump’s only clear chance to change the shape of the presidential race may come in the final debate, which will be held Tuesday evening in Nashville, Tennessee.

Among the manifestations that suggest Trump’s chances of winning will diminish, the increase in the number of Americans who chose to vote early, which does not leave him much room for maneuver, according to the writer.

However, there is one thing that Trump supporters and the “nervous” Democrats have in common, is that the president cannot be considered defeated before the final result is announced, especially given his surprise victory in the 2016 election.

However, the writer believes that the matter is different this time in several key aspects, not least because Biden has remained ahead in the polls since the start of the race, and Trump has never come close to narrowing the gap between him and his rival.

Average opinion polls conducted by RealClearPolitics are rarely close to 5% in average polls that separate Trump and Biden. And Stanig believes that this result is completely different from that shown by opinion polls prior to the 2016 presidential election, which were volatile, as Trump managed to bridge the difference between himself and his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton twice.

Doubts to the last moment

However, the relative stability in the presidential race this time suggests that the American people have made up their minds about Trump after 4 years of his “tumultuous” presidential term. The picture is clear. Few Americans - between 30% and 35% - are fond of Trump, and therefore their support for him is unwavering, as the author of the article sees.

Beyond that, Trump can win a few more points from the conservatives who do not care about his personality style or the tone of his speech, but who are willing to support him in his ability to implement their plans, which was again evident in his nomination of Judge Amy Cooney Barrett for membership of the Supreme Court.

If Congress approves her appointment, Barrett will be the third member Trump nominates for the Supreme Court, which would tilt the ideological balance in favor of the conservatives.

A poll conducted by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal last week showed that 47% of registered voters “strongly reject” Trump’s performance as president, compared to 32% who “strongly agree”.

There are two factors in particular that represent a heavy burden on President Trump, the first of which is that most voters believe that his handling of the emerging corona virus pandemic was weak.

The second factor - in Stannig’s opinion - is that Trump’s standing among female voters is “disastrous.” The NBC News and Wall Street Journal poll revealed that 60% of female voters prefer Biden, compared to 34% who favor Trump.

Despite all this, there is a possibility that Trump will emerge victorious in the elections. According to Stanig in his article, there is always a possibility that voter opinions will change at the last minute, or that Biden will have doubts. Democrats’ turnout may be lower than expected.

The writer concluded that the Trump campaign has focused heavily on black voters. Whether the campaign’s true motives were to win black Americans to its side or to reduce their turnout remains a hotly debated topic.

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