Israel and Iran: dangerous vortex and deterrence


In the face of Hezbollah, which is building a new front, and the Iranian threat, whose nature is changing from time to time, the Israeli army is building a concrete wall and advanced observation posts near the northern border, in a constant battle between parade and deterrence.

Nicolas Barot, the special correspondent of the French daily Le Figaro, began with an article in which he attempted to chart the mechanisms of the conflict between Israel and Iran, which he said were being carried out by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.

The article originated from a tunnel more than a kilometer below the border. The reporter said that Hezbollah had dug it at the village of Metula, but that the IDF had discovered it with other tunnels that, according to Israeli forces, would have been used for operations against Israel.

On the border with Lebanon, the reporter watches villages overlooking the Hezbollah-controlled border, where Israelis and Hezbollah soldiers are seen above the concrete wall that Israel has built on the border, which the reporter likened to a memorial to perpetuate the Israeli grip on the area.

Innocent shepherds A few kilometers from the village of Metula at the foot of Mount Avital, where the Israeli army set up observation posts, the reporter said the area offers unparalleled views of the Syrian plains, “where fighting between Bashar al-Assad’s army and rebels or ISIS terrorists could have been pursued before Calm back. “

The correspondent believes that the Syrian army, despite its victory in the region, is no longer a shadow, and hundreds of men can not really control the ground, but Hezbollah entered to fill the vacuum and weave its networks there.

The correspondent pointed out that the Russian forces are deployed in the region to maintain order, but allows the party to operate, as Israel accuses Hezbollah and the Syrian regular army to conduct joint patrols.

“Hezbollah is building a new front” in the Syrian city of Quneitra, said Stefan Cohen, a former liaison officer to the UN mission in the region. “He recruits Syrians who need to feed their families.”

The IDF says the group has collected a lot of weapons in the area and is sending “innocent shepherds” with mobile phones to the Israeli border to gather intelligence, although Israel has strengthened its presence in the Golan Heights.

Unwritten symbols The newspaper’s correspondent pointed out that Israel has learned how to deal with the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) in the southern Gaza Strip, but that the Iranian threat in the north is changing in nature and confuses Tel Aviv’s defense strategy.

Former Israeli pilot Ron Terra, an analyst at the Center for National Security Studies, says that Iran, through Hezbollah, is changing the rules of the game, especially since these rules follow a system of unwritten symbols, which allows each of the parties to act or respond without causing Stir conflict.

But the capabilities of pro-Iranian militias have changed, says Terra.

The reporter said the Iranians and Israelis, who are monitoring each other across the border, no longer stop their path there, but may extend to Lebanon, Syria or Iraq, where the shadow of Iran hangs.

He recalled Israeli bombardment of an Iranian base deep inside Syrian territory near the Iraqi border and said Israel wanted to prevent Iran and its “proxies”, such as Hezbollah or Shiite militias in Iraq or Syria, from acquiring increasingly powerful missiles and drones that would allow them precise strikes. And extensive, leading to significant damage in Israel.

The “effective” attack that combined drones and missiles on Saudi Aramco’s oil facilities appeared to be a warning from Iran, that Israel fully understood that Iran could also reach Israeli targets and that the operation could be a reaction from Tehran to the Israeli bombardment.

Ghost War of Attrition The installation of precision weapons and permanent bases for Iran in Syria is a major threat to Israel, and a possible cause of provoking the conflict, because the size of Tel Aviv – due to its size and infrastructure focus – will be vulnerable to selective attacks, the report said.

Considering both Israel and Iran as territorial adversaries to each other and irreconcilable, the two countries have entered a cycle of warnings and strikes to chart new deterrence bases in the region, where Iran is “unacceptable” challenging Israel’s traditional military hegemony.

“Israel rejects the idea of ​​mutual deterrence,” says Pierre Razo, a French researcher in the region. But absolute safety is impossible.

He explained that the development of Iranian armaments has modified the logic of dialogue between regional powers, even before Tehran completes its nuclear program.

The envoy warned that the new balance of power is being achieved in the context of the US withdrawal from the region, where the Israeli writer Ron Ben-Yishai that the idea of ​​a US withdrawal from Syria “destroyed Israel.”

Source: Le Figaro

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